Stonehenge

Stonehenge

Stone Circle, Henge and Standing Stone
Wiltshire

"A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the

"A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position to where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned.This method holds good in watching and determining the flood tide of the stock market. The average of (stock prices) is the peg, which marks the height of the waves. The price-waves, like those of the sea, do not recede all at once from the top. The force which moves them checks the inflow gradually, and time elapses before it can be told with certainty whether high tide has been seen or not".

Charles Dow

"On the late Charles H. Dow's well-known method of reading the stock market movement from the Dow Jones Averages, the twenty railroad stocks on Wednesday October 23 confirmed a bearish indication given by the industrials two days before. Together the averages gave the signal for a bear market in stocks after a major bull market with the unprecedented duration of almost six years..." William P. HamiltonFrom editorial in the Wall Street Journal October 25, 1929well-known method of reading the stock market movement from the Dow Jones Averages, the twenty railroad stocks on Wednesday October 23 confirmed a bearish indication given by the industrials two days before. Together the averages gave the signal for a bear market in stocks after a major bull market with the unprecedented duration of almost six years..." William P. HamiltonFrom editorial in the Wall Street Journal October 25, 1929

Charles H. Dow

Charles H. Dow (Nov. 6, 1851 - Dec. 4, 1902) developed his famous market philosophy while living a colorful life as a newspaper reporter, financial writer, broker, analyst, and editor.Born in Sterling, Connecticut, in 1851, the son of a farmer, little can be found regarding his early life and schooling. However, by 1872, Dow began to blossom out at the age of 21 as a promising newspaper reporter for The Springfield Daily Republican of Springfield, Massachusetts. It is interesting to note that this leading New England newspaper was edited by the spectacular Samuel Bowles who was well known and famous for his writing in this country and throughout Europe. No doubt, since Dow was only 21, this great editor strongly influenced young Dow, a budding newspaperman. From 1875 to 1879, Dow continued his newspaper work in Providence, Rhode Island. Here he soon became known as an outstanding reporter for another leading newspaper, The Providence Journal. Once again, a famous newspaperman, George W. Danielson, was editor. In those days, the greatness of newspapermen was measured by their style of writing and the appeal it had to the public. All writers worked to follow or to improve the pattern of literary expression set by the masters of the profession. It is assumed that Dow did the same. By the time, he was 27, he had the good fortune to have served under two of the nation's best known and most highly respected newspaper editors, and, no doubt, they did much to guide the upcoming Dow into the bright future which was in store for him. We will never know whether or not Dow planned to get this unusual training he received as a young reporter. By 1879, the fabulous mining boom in and around Leadville, Colorado, was on. It seemed that just about anyone in those days could go into the mountains in this area with a pick & shovel and become a millionaire almost overnight. The town had mushroomed in its growth from one lonesome cabin on the side of a mountain nearby to a thriving mining center of some 20,000 people in just a few years. Many newsworthy events were taking place in Leadville. Several New England newspapers felt that they should obtain more detailed information. In a united effort in this direction, they selected Dow to make a trip to Leadville. This trip, made in the summer of 1879, became a turning point in Dow's career. His writings from then on were to become more and more financial in nature. Being the most qualified reporter sent by some highly respected newspapers in the East, Dow gained admittance to the inner chambers of some important financial people, and it wasn't long before he became nationally known for his financial writings. In 1880, he moved to Wall Street as an experienced mining analyst and talented newspaper reporter. Tall and fully bearded at the age of 29, he joined the financial staff of the Kiernan News Agency. There he became acquainted with Edward D. Jones, and in 1882, Dow and Jones established the Dow Jones & Company, which operated as a financial news agency for a number of years, and later, in 1889, began publishing The Wall Street Journal, which was destined to become the largest financial newsgathering agency in the world. Another chapter in Dow's broad financial experience came in late 1885 when he became a member of the New York Stock Exchange. He became a partner of Goodbody, Glynn & Dow at that time, and acted as the firm's floor broker for a number of years. Six years later the firm's name was changed to Robert L. Goodbody & Co. Dow had severed his connections with the firm. With The Wall Street Journal now in its second year, Dow devoted his attention to it entirely. In the years that followed, until his death in 1902, Dow became the nation's leading financial writer in the eyes of many investors as editor of The Wall Street Journal. He was regarded as a seasoned, intelligent financial observer with a keen ability to judge human nature. Dow came up through the ranks with an excellent training in journalism, a wide experience in the field with financial affairs, a membership in the New York Stock Exchange, and editor of The Wall Street Journal, his own enterprise, which was to grow and grow for many decades after his death. This record of achievement against huge odds is to be noted. Dow was a self-made man and had to blaze his own trail in the business of analyzing market trends for investors. He had practically no market statistics to rely on, as we have today. His varied experiences, his seasoned insight into the psychology of investors, his close financial contacts during 22 years on Wall Street, and his patience and determination to get at the truth in his financial writing remain the backbone of his market philosophy. It was during these 22 years that Dow gained valuable knowledge of price movements and their relationship to the outlook for the overall economy. Here he could observe at first hand the full turn of a business cycle - and its effect upon stocks - from bottom to top to bottom again. This history tells us he recorded many facts and figures diligently, as a student of the market, so he could analyze how individual issues and groups of stocks reacted to business conditions and to other economic news. These were the days of unhampered manipulation on the floor of the Stock Exchange, masterminded by such operators as Jay Gould, James R. Keene, and "Bet-a-million" Gates, who got his nickname by wagering which raindrop would roll to the bottom of a train window first. The writings of Dow from 1899 to 1902 still amaze market students today. For example, Charles H. Dow once wrote that an investor

"...who will study values and market conditions, and then exercise enough patience for six men, will be likely to make money in stocks."
Penned some sixty years ago, this thought provoking observation is as important today as ever before. Dow knew that time itself had produced large fortunes for those who studied the market, had the temperament to buy low when a primary bull market was in its early stages, when good values were available, and held on patiently as a major bull market progressed upward over the years. Jay Gould, whose speculative forays into the stock market had amassed millions, was among them. Dow, who knew Gould well, and is reported to have enjoyed his confidences as much as any newspaperman of the period, wrote that the goateed New York plunger based his position primarily on "values" at times when the market's primary trend pointed higher. “Then," added Gould, "I exercise great patience in awaiting results." Dow correctly observed from his experience on the New York Stock Exchange that even the manipulation which then prevailed had little effect upon the long-term price movements of stocks, because the overall "primary" movement represented actions based on the sum total of all knowledge available to Wall Street. He noted that the movement of the market reflected either bullishness or bearishness as far ahead as the clearest vision in Wall Street could collectively see. These views were expressed time and time again in his editorials in “The Wall Street Journal." Dow's philosophy of investing has been described as “fundamental, axiomatic, sensible, and self-evident." He often said,

“that nobody in the world knew everything-but, that the price movement of the averages did because they represent the aggregate knowledge of all investors."
He was the first to observe that:

“the price trend is not saying what the condition of business is today, but what it will be months from now."
By the time of his death, Dow had lived through three financial crises in this country-1873, 1884, and 1893, and during the same period, he saw a booming United States economy outdistance every other country in the world in steel production, railway mileage and manufactured products. His broad financial experience plus the vast amount of information on business and economic conditions in this country and the rest of the world that passed over his desk daily as editor of The Wall Street Journal was the background from which now was able to draw and develop his concepts. It helped him form the basic elements of a market philosophy, which in the past six decades, has been studied, followed, or imitated more than any other forecasting technique ever devised. Dow logically reasoned that before guess could be formulated as to the expected direction of the majority of stock prices, it was necessary to decide whether the market was, at any given time, "high," "low," or somewhere "in between." But at this time, there was no real way to tell. You could look at the record of two or three stocks and form a subjective judgment. But your conclusions might be erroneous if, as well might happen, the two or three stocks you chose were not truly representative of market forces at that time. Union Pacific might be selling at a three-year high, but before you could judge the price level of "rail stocks" as a whole, in historical perspective, you would have to consider the price movements of a considerable number of representative issues. The more issues you included-and the more years you went back-the better you could view the "market" in its proper perspective. Because it would have been time-consuming for the average person to make such an analysis, investors generally relied on the memories and opinions of their brokers. Brokers, in turn, did not always agree on the state of the market as a whole. The investment business was characterized by a good deal of confusion, as there was no authoritative, published measure of the movement of stock prices. Charles Dow satisfied a widespread craving for such a measure when he formulated a statistical set of averages that was to become known as the "Dow Jones Averages." There is evidence that Dow experimented with various types of averages for many years. One article published in the early years of The Wall Street Journal implies that he had worked with an average of 60 rail stocks as far back as 1872. The first issue of The Wall Street Journal appeared on July 8, 1889 and it contained an average of 12 stocks with a discussion suggesting that Dow had been carrying this average forward from 1884, at least. The original Industrial and Rail Averages appeared in The Wall Street Journal on October 8, 1896. The Industrial Average was composed of 12 stocks and the Rail Average contained 20. Although the Industrial Average has been enlarged to 30 stocks and many changes have taken place in the make-up of both averages over the years, these averages have been published in The Wall Street Journal regularly since then. A third average, the Utility Average, composed of 15 utility stocks, was initiated in 1929. Dow apparently had no intention of formulating a system or theory of any sort when he invented his averages. After he had constructed them, however, he gave them careful study to see if conclusions could be drawn or if any sort of a pattern emerged from their behavior. He often commented upon the developments that took place in his averages, and, as a rule, he correlated these findings with the economic situation and mass psychology among investors. His findings soon began to exceed his wildest expectations, and later amaze those of his followers who were to continue and refine Dow's concepts. Dow never sat down to record all the principles of his Dow Theory in a single book or article. Instead, we must look to his whole collection of editorials from 1899 to 1902 to find his perceptive interpretations of the price movement, which form the background for what we regard as the Dow Theory today. One of Dow's close friends and associates-Samuel A. Nelson- publisher of five books on the stock market did attempt to persuade Dow to write a book on his investment ideas, but his efforts were to no avail. Consequently, even before Dow's death in late 1902, Nelson undertook the work of gathering material for the book, which he believed Dow should have written. Nelson spent many long hours digging through the "morgue" of The Wall Street Journal seeking out what he believed to be Dow's most informative and interpretive stock market editorials. Nelson's fifth and last book, The ABC of Stock Speculation published in 1903, gave voice to many principles of trading and contained a number of Dow's editorials, which he labeled as "Dow's Theory." The following excerpt is from Kenneth L. Fisher's book - One Hundred Minds That Made the Markets Charles Dow is one of Wall Street’s most significant legends for two very significant reasons- he created our financial bible, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), as well as our first market barometer, the Dow Jones Averages. He is also the father of technical analysis. Ironically, Dow went relatively unnoticed for his achievements and died quietly at the age of 51 in his modest Brooklyn apartment in 1902---years before he was credited with revolutionizing the way we now talk about the stock market.

Stonehenge builders' houses found

British archaeologists have discovered the homes of the ancient people who built Stonehenge, a massive settlement near a river that will likely open an important new chapter in the study of one of the world’s most famous monuments. Excavations at Durrington Walls uncovered remains of ancient houses. People seem to have occupied the sites seasonally, using them for ritual feasting and funeral ceremonies. In ancient times, this settlement would have housed hundreds of people, making it the largest Neolithic village ever found in Britain. The dwellings date back to 2,600-2,500 BCE - according to the researchers, the same period that Stonehenge was built. But some archaeologists point out that there are problems dating Stonehenge itself because the stone circle has been rebuilt many times. Consequently, archaeological material has been dug up and reburied on numerous occasions, making it difficult to assign a date to the original construction. But Mike Parker Pearson and his colleagues are confident of a link. "In what were houses, we have excavated the outlines on the floors of box beds and wooden dressers or cupboards," he explained.The Sheffield University researcher said this was based on the fact that these abodes had exactly the same layout as Neolithic houses at Skara Brae, Orkney, which have survived intact because - unlike these dwellings - they were made of stone. The researchers have excavated eight houses in total at Durrington. But they have identified many other probable dwellings using geophysical surveying equipment. In fact, they think there could have been at least one hundred houses. Each one measured about 5m (16ft) square, was made of timber, with a clay floor and central hearth. The archaeologists found 4,600-year-old rubbish covering the floors of the houses. "We've never seen such quantities of pottery and animal bone and flint," Professor Parker Pearson said. The Sheffield University researcher thinks the settlement was probably not lived in all year round. Instead, he believes, Stonehenge and Durrington formed a religious complex used for funerary rituals. He believes it drew Neolithic people from all over the region, who came for massive feasts in the midwinter, where prodigious quantities of food were consumed. The bones were then tossed on the floors of the houses. Stonehenge is aligned with the midwinter solstice sunset, while Durrington's timber circle is aligned with the midwinter solstice sunrise - they were complementary. This seems to fit with the idea of a midwinter festival, in turn supported by analysis of pig teeth found at the site. "One of the things we can tell from the pig teeth we've looked at is that most of them have been slaughtered at nine months. And we think they are farrowing in Spring," he said. Professor Parker Pearson believes Durrington's purpose was to celebrate life and deposit the dead in the river for transport to the afterlife. Stonehenge was a memorial and final resting place for some of the dead. After feasting, he speculated, people travelled down the timber circle's "avenue" to deposit their dead in the River Avon flowing towards Stonehenge. They then moved along Stonehenge's avenue to the circle, where they cremated and buried a select few of their dead. But not all archaeologists agree: "I see Stonehenge more as a living monument," archaeologist and broadcaster Julian Richards said."So in terms of broad understanding of the landscape I'm not in total agreement." Dr Andrew Fitzpatrick, from Wessex Archaeology, who was not a member of the research team, commented: "There haven't been many excavations near Stonehenge in recent years and the new work will stimulate exciting new theories in coming years. "But we shouldn't forget that Stonehenge became special when people brought the stones from Wales, 250km away. Some of the answers about Stonehenge aren't just to be found in Durrington, but further afield." Stonehenge was the largest cemetery in Britain at the time, containing about 250 ashes from cremations. In a separate area, further up the valley from Durrington Walls, Julian Thomas of Manchester University, discovered two other Neolithic houses. But these were free of rubbish. The researchers think these dwellings were deliberately kept clean. They could have been home to community leaders, or they might have been sacred sites, where rituals were performed.



Sorces: BBC News, The Boston Globe (30 January 2006)

Loanhead of Daviot

This stone circle is set on ground which slopes to the NE between two rivers; it is one of more than 15 megalithic sites in the same area. The circle has a diameter of 20.5 m (67 ft) and is dated approximately 2500 BC. The recumbent stone and its pair of flankers stand at SSW and were strangely set just inside the line of the circle, watching over eight other equally spaced uprights. The stone beside the east flanker has a vertical line of at least five cupmarks on its inner face. At one time it was thought that the recumbent was a 'double' stone, but it was later found to be just one, split by the elements. During 1934 excavations, charcoal and broken pottery sherds were found around the bases of most of the monoliths, indicating single burial cairns at each. In the middle of the low Bronze Age cairn within the circle lay a rectangular mortuary pit, which may be the oldest part of the site. A hearth was found in the ring cairn, which may indicate its use as a dwelling at some time, almost certainly when the site had lost its original meaning and was seen simply as a convenient place to live. Nearby is a circular-banked cemetery, of about the same age, consisting of an 88 square m (850 sq ft) cremation site.

Plan and layout of an Upper Paleolithic.

Plan and layout of an Upper Paleolithic hut from Dolni Vestonice, Czechoslovakia. This structure was first dug out from a slope and the roof was supported with timber set into post-holes. It dates to about 23,000 BCE. The low walls were made of packed clay and stones. The evidence of clay firing at this site are the earliest ever found. The famous Venus figurine was found at this sitte.

A Paleolithic hut divided in three sections and made of animal skins was found at Pushkari, Ukraine. The inside was dug out and the structure was built-up from mammoth bones.
No other animal remains were found here -- these were specialised mammoth hunters. Many of the bones found here had evidence of red paint, a common find at Paleolithic sites.

Circular base of mammoth bones found at Mezin, near Tchernogov, that provided a supporting structure for a Paleolithic hut of a typical mammoth hunting society. The tent was made of mammoth hides and was probably carpeted with mammoth hides, although fur hides, like fox, wolf, and bearskins, were often used for bedding.

Mousterian hut found at Moldova, Ukraine, made of mammoth bones and mammoth hides. The mammoth jaws used at the base were interlocked -- a clever technique found at most of the mammoth hunter sites. The mammoth hunting culture appears to have thrived for tens of thousands of years.

Circular base of mammoth bones found at Mezin with some support bones still standing. The mammoth hunters often built entire huts out of mammoth bones and covered them with mammoth hides stitiched together and anchored at the corners. They also made tools and objects from the tusks. Remains suggest that some of them ate nothing but mammoth meat. They must have been delicious, since they ate every last one.

An Acheulean hut found in the Grotte du Lazaret near Nice, in France.

An Acheulean hut found in the Grotte du Lazaret near Nice, in France. This tent-like structure was built inside a cave and was made of animal hides draped over a wooden framework and held down by stones. It dates to perhaps 500,000 to 400,000 BCE. The interior measures 11 meters by 3.5 meters, and it was subdivided into two rooms, the larger of which had a fireplace. Animal furs, grasses, and seaweed were used as carpeting and bedding. The inhabitants, apparently Neanderthals, selectively used pine for heating in preference to more available types of wood.

Another reconstruction of the hut at Terra Amata. The hut was 8 meters long by 4 meters wide. Hand-axes and other stone tools and flakes were found in the vicinity.
These people, apparently Neanderthals, were hunters and the site contains remains of the bones of a variety of animals, including elephant, rhinoceros, red deer, ibex, and giant ox.

Stone Ages habitats II

Evidence of a wooden hut found at Terra Amata, near Nice in France, was dated to the Mindel Glaciation, or between 450,000 and 380,000 BCE. The hut included a hearth, or fireplace and was made by bracing branches with a circle of large and small stones. Similar stone circles are found throughout the upper and lower paleolithic. The basic design of such habitats may have remained unchanged for a million years.

Stone Age Habitats

Man's earliest ancestors sought protection from the elements and predators in natural shelters such as caves and rock overhangs. Gradually, they learned to improve their caves with inlaid stone floors, walls at the entrances and fireplaces. Ultimately they began creating entirely new habitats in locations that had no natural shelter. The construction of such habitats may have been influenced by the cold weather of the ice ages cycles shown in the white areas of the diagram.

The earliest evidence of a man-made habitat dates to about 2,000,000 BCE and comes from Olduvai Gorge in Central Africa. A small circle of stones were found stacked, apparently to hold branches in position. This was clearly the work of Homo Habilis, our tool-making ancestor. This precursor to Homo Erectus was a tool user (more than a tool-maker), had campsites, and was using fire as early as 3,000,000 BCE.

THE IRON AGE

THE IRON AGE

Iron Age, marks the period of development of TECHNOLOGY, when the working of iron came into general use, replacing bronze as the basic material for implements and weapons. It is the last stage of the archaelogical sequence known as the three-age system (Stone Age, Bronze Age, & Iron Age).

Chronologically, the term is only of local value because iron took the place of bronze at different times in different cultures.

The major technical advance of the early Greek period was the widespread use of iron. Furnaces were developed that could reach the high melting temperature of that metal. Iron technology had spread throughout the classical world by about 500 BC.

Early steels were discovered by adding small amounts of carbon to iron as it was hammered over a charcoal fire. Mining became well developed and included the use of pumps to keep mines from flooding.

Metalware was used for pots and dishes, sometimes with unforeseen disastrous results such as lead poisoning. Among the greatest Roman works were the large aqueducts that carried water for hundreds of miles, roads that spanned the empire, and public sewer systems.

Advances in building construction led to the widespread use of the arch by the Romans and to the invention of durable cements and concretes for structures that have survived to the present.

Technology also advanced weaponry with the development of catapults, better swords, and body armor.

THE BRONZE AGE

THE BRONZE AGE

Bronze Age, the time in the development of any human culture, before the introduction of iron, when most tools and weapons were made of bronze.

Chronologically, the term is of strictly local value, for bronze came into use, and was again replaced by iron, at different times in different parts of the world. It generally succeeds a culture's Copper Age.

Archaeological discoveries since 1960 have upset traditional theories concerning the origins of copper and bronze technologies. It had been thought that the use of bronze had originated in the Middle East, but discoveries near Ban Chiang, Thailand, indicate that bronze technology was known there as early as 4500 bc.

This preceded the working of bronze in the Middle East by several hundred years. Bronze objects have been found in Asia Minor that date from before 3000 bc. At first this alloy was used sparingly, mostly for decorative purposes; the tin needed to make it was not available in the region.

Regular imports of tin from Cornwall in Britain during the 2d millennium bc, however, made possible wider use of bronze in the Middle East, and it was eventually utilized for tools and weapons.

Raw copper was being pounded into tools and ornaments as early as 10,000 bc. Later discoveries at Rudna Glava in Yugoslavia have shown that copper was in use there in 4000 bc, although bronze was not made at that time.

By 3000 bc bronze began to be used in Greece. In China the Bronze Age did not begin until 1800 bc. The pre-Columbian civilizations of the Americas had no bronze technology until about ad 1000.
The Bronze Age in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean has been divided into three phases early, middle, and late.

The early phase is characterized by increased use of the metal, from the sporadic to the common. It was the time of the Sumerian civilization and the rise of Akkad to prominence in Mesopotamia; it also generated the spectacular treasures of Troy.

Babylon reached its height of glory during the middle Bronze Age. Minoan Crete and Mycenaean Greece were major late-Bronze-Age civilizations. The Bronze Age there ended about 1200 bc, after which iron technology became common.

Stone Age Tools

THE STONE AGE

THE STONE AGE

Stone Age, the time, early in the development of human cultures, before the use of metals, when tools and weapons were made of stone. The dates of the Stone Age vary considerably for different parts of the world. In Europe, Asia, and Africa it began about 2 million years ago.

In the most advanced parts of the Middle East and Southeast Asia it ended about 6000 bc, but it lingered until 4000 bc or later in Europe, the rest of Asia, and Africa. The Stone Age in the Americas began when human beings first arrived in the New World, some 30,000 years ago, and ended in some areas about 2500 bc at the earliest.

Throughout the immense time span of the Stone Age, vast changes occurred in climate and in other conditions affecting human culture. Humans themselves evolved into their modern form during the latter part of it. The Stone Age has been divided accordingly into three periods: the Paleolithic, Mesolithic, and Neolithic.


The Paleolithic, or Old Stone Age, was the longest. It began about 2 million years ago, when stone tools were first used by humanoid creatures, and ended with the close of the last ice age about 13,000 bc.


The hunting and gathering of food was the norm. At first, single tools, such as chipped pebbles or flaked stone implements, were used for all purposes. Over time, a variety of tools were made for specific purposes. By about 100,000 years ago, Neanderthal cultures had several types of tools and were using bone implements.

At the end of the Paleolithic period, modern humans (Homo sapiens) made such specialized tools as needles and harpoons. In the Cro-Magnon caves of Europe, wall paintings and evidence of both religious cults and possible social stratification point to the complexity of the cultures.


After 13,000 bc more clement weather patterns resulted in the greater availability of food. In tropical and temperate forest regions, Paleolithic tools, still chipped, were adapted to the new conditions. This period is known as the Mesolithic, or Middle Stone Age.

In both the Middle East and in Mesoamerica, however, agricultural villages had begun to develop by 8000 bc. This is known as the Neolithic period, or New Stone Age. Stone tools became highly polished and varied. By 6000 bc pottery appeared in the ancient Middle East, and copper was used for the first time in some regions. In other regions, the Neolithic arrived much later.

Lundin Links

Lundin Links

STANDING STONES

This impressive setting of three tall and irregularly shaped standing stones is now in a private golf course at Lundin Links (North-East Fife). They could be the remains of a stone circle.
The three red sandstone pillars are 5.5m, 4.6m and 4.1m high.
A cist and human bones were found during some excavations in the early eighteenth century

Ballochroy

Ballochroy

STONE ROW

These three standing stones are in a NE-SW line in a field on the east coast of the Kintyre Peninsula. They are 2m, 3m and 3.4m tall, but the lowest one's top is broken.
36.5 metres to the east there is a burial cist built with four side-slabs and one massive capstone. It was once covered by a large cairn.
According to Alexander Thom, this stone setting was a 1st millennium BC astronomical observatory for the solstice.

Strathclyde map

O impacto do pico petrolífero sobre a segurança alimentar

O impacto do pico petrolífero sobre a segurança alimentar

por Caroline Lucas [*]
Andy Jones [**]
e Colin Hines [**]


"Quando o preço do petróleo elevou-se acima dos US$ 50/barril nos fins de 2004, a atenção pública começou a focar-se na adequação do abastecimento mundial de petróleo – e especificamente sobre quando a produção atingiria o pico e começaria a declinar. Os analistas estão longe de um consenso acerca desta questão, mas várias personalidades eminentes acreditam agora que o pico petrolífero está iminente". [1] US Department of Energy, 2005

Ao longo dos últimos meses tem havido muita especulação acerca das causas dos preços mais elevados do petróleo, e sobre a probabilidade de esta alta continuar ou não. Os comentários têm sido focados sobre a instabilidade geopolítica do Médio Oriente; o aumento da dependência da Rússia; a retomada do controle das indústrias do petróleo por governos da América Latina; e estrangulamentos de oferta tais como a capacidade de refinação.

Os constrangimentos geológicos quanto à futura oferta de energia, conhecido como pico petrolífero (peak oil) – o ponto a partir do qual a produção cessa de aumentar e começa o seu inevitável declínio a longo prazo – têm entretanto recebido muito menos atenção. Ainda que a maioria dos constrangimentos ao acesso ao petróleo pudessem potencialmente ser ultrapassados através de políticas ou meios económicos, a realidade geológica dos sempre minguantes fornecimentos de combustíveis fósseis é indiscutível.

Enquanto foram precisos 145 anos para consumir metade dos 2-2,5 x 10 18 barris de petróleo convencional, geralmente considerados como o total disponível, é provável que, dado particularmente os enormes aumentos da procura da China e da Índia, a outra metade será consumida sobretudo dentro dos próximos 40 anos. Cerca de 98% do petróleo bruto global vem de 45 países, mais da metade dos quais já atingiram o pico da produção, incluindo sete dos países da OPEP. Em 2003, pela primeira vez, as descobertas de grandes campos de petróleo caíram a zero, ao passo que o excesso de capacidade mantido pelos países da OPEP definhou de uma média de 30% para cerca de 1% da procura global de hoje. [2] A produção mundial de petróleo e gás está a declinar a uma média de 4-6% ao ano, ao passo que a procura está a crescer 2-3% ao ano. As implicações disto, para todos os aspectos das nossas vidas de hoje, são esmagadoras. Alguns analistas começaram a falar nos impactos sobre os nossos sistemas de transportes, e sobre o aquecimento das nossas casas. Mas até agora muito pouca atenção tem sido dada às implicações para os nossos sistemas alimentares. Este relatório apresenta a tese de que, a menos que seja tomada acção urgente, à medida que a segurança petrolífera se deteriorar deteriorar-se-á também a segurança alimentar. Rapidamente verifica-se que decisões tomadas por departamentos governamentais de energia, quer continuem a promover combustíveis fosseis ou mudem para fontes de energia renováveis, podem ter um efeito maior sobre a segurança alimentar a longo prazo do que quaisquer acções tomadas por departamentos da agricultura.

A quantidade de energia que está concentrada mesmo numa pequena quantidade de petróleo ou gás é extraordinária. Um barril de petróleo contem a energia equivalente a quase 25 mil horas de trabalho humano. Um simples galão [3,78 litros] de petróleo contem o equivalente energético a 500 horas de trabalho humano. E, por todo o mundo, os sistemas de produção alimentar fazem um uso extenso desta energia armazenada nos combustíveis fósseis e numa escala maciça.

A industrialização da agricultura acelerada dramaticamente nos países industrializados após a Segunda Guerra Mundial, e principiou em muitos países mais pobres em resultado da Revolução Verde das décadas de 1950 e 1960. Estas tendências transformaram a produção alimentar por todo o globo, com colheitas mundiais de cereais a aumentarem 250%. Mas esta dependência dos combustíveis fósseis – na forma de fertilizantes (os quais representam cerca de um terço do consumo de energia da agricultura), pesticidas e maquinaria agrícola alimentada a hidrocarbonetos e sistema de irrigação – significa que a agricultura industrializada consome 50 vezes o input energético da agricultura tradicional. Nos casos mais extremos, o consumo energético da agricultura aumentou 100 vezes ou mais. Foi estimado, por exemplo, que 95% de todos os nossos produtos alimentares exigem a utilização do petróleo. [3] Apenas para criar uma única vaca e para entregá-la no mercado requer 6 barris de petróleo, o suficiente para mover um carro de Nova York a Los Angeles. [4] Este relatório pormenoriza a extensão em que os sistema alimentares do século XXI estão dependentes da utilização intensiva de energia, e examina porque eles são particularmente vulneráveis ao impacto dos altos preços da energia devido aos fertilizantes, pesticidas, plásticos, combustível de aviação, 'armazenagem sobre rodas' e sistema de entrega 'just in time', centrais no sistema alimentar do Reino Unido que é dominado pelos supermercados. Tivemos um vislumbre de quão dependente a oferta até mesmo dos alimentos mais básicos se tornara em relação ao petróleo durante os bloqueios de refinarias e depósitos de distribuição em Setembro de 2000, quando o protesto de agricultores e transportadores rodoviários contra impostos mais elevados sobre combustíveis disparou uma "crise nacional de combustíveis". O presidente da Sainsbury, um dos maiores retalhistas do Reino Unido, escreveu ao primeiro-ministro a adverti-lo de que a crise do petróleo estava a ameaçar os stocks alimentares britânicos e que as lojas provavelmente seriam esvaziadas de alimentos "em dias e não em semanas". [5]

Grande parte do nosso sistema alimentar tem uma ineficiência global estarrecedora – incluindo custos energéticos para maquinaria agrícola, transportação, processamento e matérias-primas para produtos químicos destinados à agricultura. O moderno sistema alimentar consome aproximadamente dez calorias de energia em combustíveis fósseis para cada caloria de energia alimentar produzida. [6] O processamento é particularmente dependente da energia. Da próxima vez que apanhar uma típica caixa com 450 gramas de cereal para o pequeno almoço, por exemplo, pode considerar que aquilo poderia ter exigido mais de7000 quilocalorias de energia para o processamento, ao passo que o próprio cereal proporcionaria apenas 1100 quilocalorias de energia alimentar. [7]

A dependência do Reino Unido da importação de alimentos torna-nos particularmente vulneráveis à elevação dos preços da energia.

Actualmente confiamos nas importações para proporcionar quase um terço dos alimentos consumidos no Reino Unido, e temos um dos mais baixos rácios de auto-suficiência alimentar na União Europeia. [8] Embora o Reino Unidos tenha sido um importador líquido de alimentos durante um longo tempo, as importações estão actualmente a crescer a uma taxa significativa. Os números do DEFRA mostram que as importações em toneladas aumentaram 38% de 1998 a 2002. Para alguns tipo de alimentos, o aumento tem sido mais dramático. As importações, por exemplo, de fruta duplicaram, enquanto as de legumes triplicaram. Metade de todos os legumes e 95% de toda a fruta consumida no Reino Unido agora vem do além mar. [9]

O relatório examina a realidade do nosso sistema alimentar intensivo em energia através de estudos de caso para examinar como um conjunto de custos acrescidos de petróleo e gás natural afectará o preço de algumas das mais básicas mercadorias alimentares quotidianas. Demonstrámos como uma galinha de £3 [€4,45] poderia quase duplicar de preço, ou triplicar se os custos de entregar na loja, armazenar e cozer em casa forem incluídos. Para os ingredientes de uma fritura típica, os custos associados ao transporte só com os ingredientes aumentariam entre £1.70 e £3.95 [€2,52 e €5,86].

Contudo, o efeito do aumentos dos preços do petróleo sobre a produção alimentar é apenas a metade da história. O seu efeito sobre a procura por bens alimentares também é extremamente significativo. Uma vez que virtualmente todas as plantas que actualmente cultivamos para alimentos também podem ser convertidas em combustível automóvel, tanto em destilarias de etanol como em refinarias de biodiesel, preços elevados do petróleo abrirão um vasto mercado novo para produtos agrícolas. Aqueles a comprarem bens para produtores de combustíveis estarão a competir directamente com os processadores de alimentos pelos abastecimentos de trigo, milho, soja, açúcar de cana e outros produtos agrícolas chave. Como observou Lester Brown, o preço do petróleo está a estabelecer o preço para os alimentos simplesmente porque se o valor do combustível de uma mercadoria exceder o seu valor como alimento, ela será convertida em combustível – "com efeito, supermercados e estações de serviço estão agora a competir pelas mesmas mercadorias". [10]

As implicações disto são ainda mais graves, considerando que já estamos a enfrentar um mundo de escassez de cereais potencial. Na China, por exemplo, a colheita de cereais caiu de 34 milhões de toneladas, ou 9%, entre 1998 e 2005. Há um risco real de que uma combinação de crescente dependência da China dos mercados mundiais por grandes importações, juntamente com uma crescente diversão de mercadorias agrícolas para biocombustíveis, resultará em preços de cereais a serem conduzidos a uma altura tal que muitos países em desenvolvimento de baixo rendimento simplesmente não serão capazes de importar cereal suficiente. [11] Isto por sua vez poderia conduzir à escala dos preços alimentares e à instabilidade política numa escala global. Num mundo que enfrenta o acréscimo anual de mais de 70 milhões de pessoas a uma população mundial de mais de 6 mil milhões, num momento em que a água potável está a escassear, as temperaturas as ascender devido à mudança climática [NT 1] , e quando os abastecimentos de petróleo estão em vias de definhar, a necessidade da acção decisiva não poderia ser mais urgente.

O relatório termina com o esboço das mudanças abrangentes que serão necessárias para assegurar que as necessidades alimentares de todo e cada um dos países seja plenamente cumprida. Isto envolverá uma mudança radical para um sistema agrícola de baixa energia, baixo input, cada vez mais orgânico e localizado, e exigirá mudanças fundamentais na política energética e nas regras do comércio mundial. Para a UE, exigirá também uma mudança radical na direcção e âmbito da Política Agrícola Comum e do Mercado Único, o qual actualmente da prioridade à competitividade internacional em relação à segurança alimentar nacional. Um dos elementos chave da estratégia de segurança energética da EU, o desenvolvimento em grande escala de biocombustíveis, também precisará ser revisto, uma vez que ironicamente esta estratégia podia por si própria colocar uma ameaça à segurança alimentar, pois é transferida terra da produção alimentar a fim de se cultivarem plantas para combustível. Finalmente, no Reino Unido, estamos a apelar por uma Comissão Real sobre Segurança Alimentar a fim de elevar a maior consciência política a necessidade urgente de desconectar nosso sistema alimentar da dependência dos combustíveis fósseis. Trata-se de exigências ambiciosas. Mas a escala da crise que enfrentamos exige não menos do que isso.

Notas
1- US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Select Crude Oil spot prices at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude1.html , updated 28 July 2005. Alfred J. Cavallo, Oil; Caveat Empty, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 61, no.3 (May/June 2005).
2- www.epolitix.com/EN/MPWebsites/Michael%2BMeacher...
3- Chris Skrebowski, Joining the Dots, Presentation to Energy Institute Conference, London, 10 November 2004.
4- The price of steak, National Geographic, June 2004.
5- Elliot, V. 2000, Panic buyers force stores to ration food, The Times. September 14th 2000.
6- Grazing Lands: RCA Issue Brief #6, US department of Agriculture, National Resources Conservations Service, November 1995.
7- Danielle Murray, Rising oil prices will impact food supplies, 13 September 2005.
8- DEFRA, The Validity of Food Miles as an indicator of Sustainable Development, July 2005, p.19
9 DEFRA, op cit
10- Lester Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet under stress and a civilisation in trouble, Norton 2006
11- Ibid.
NT 1- Trata-se de um equívoco dos autores. Ver Aquecimento global: uma impostura científica e Aquecimento global: origem e natureza do alegado consenso científico.

O presente texto é a introdução do relatório. O documento completo encontra-se em Fuelling a Food Crisis (PDF, 550KB)
http://www.carolinelucasmep.org.uk/publications/pdfs_and_word/Fuelling%20a%20food%20crisis%20FINAL%20Dec06.pdf



A Soil Association examinará o Pico petrolífero e a agricultura na sua conferência anual em 26 e 27 de Janeiro de 2007. Clique aqui para mais pormenores . http://www.soilassociation.org/conference



[*] Deputada Verde por South-East England e membro dos Comités de Ambiente e de Comércio Internacional do Parlamento Europeu.
[**] Autor de 'Eating Oil'.
[***] Autor de 'Localisation: A Global Manifesto'.

http://www.resistir.info/energia/petroleo_alimentos.html

O original encontra-se em http://www.energybulletin.net/24319.html

Seahenge ready to return to Norfolk

Seahenge ready to return to Norfolk

Norfolk's famous Bronze Age timber circle should finally be returning to the county in the next couple of months, ready to take pride of place in a flagship exhibition. A display of part of Seahenge, which was controversially excavated from the shoreline at Holme, near Hunstanton (England), in 1999, is set to be the crowning glory of a £1m museum redevelopment at King's Lynn.
The 55 oak posts and central, upturned tree stump, which were all that remained of a structure built by an inland farming community in the spring or early summer of 2049 BCE, have been undergoing specialist conservation at the Mary Rose Trust in Portsmouth. Although work on the giant stump - thought to be the largest piece of wood ever preserved, is expected to take several more years, the timbers themselves are now in the final stages of the process.
Once the new exhibition opens in September, work will start on the Seahenge Gallery, including not only a display of half the real timbers but a full-size replica of the circle. "Something that came out very strongly from the consultation was that people were quite confused by what survives," explained area museums officer Robin Hanley. "The timbers that survived were what was below ground and everything above has rotted away. The view came back that people would welcome a full-size replica to get a feeling of what it would be like to walk inside. By seeing the replica first, it means that when they go around and see the original timbers they can make much better sense of what they are seeing."
There are hopes that the Seahenge display will open early next year. Because of the high level of interest in the project, 'windows' will be provided in the screens around the working area so museum visitors can peek inside.

Source: EDP24 (13 January 2007)

Loanhead of Daviot

This fine recumbent circle faces south, in order to monitor the movements of the Moon

Croft Moraig

This site is composed by various stone settings, one of which is horseshoe-shaped

Stonehenge.

Stonehenge Didn't Stand Alone, Excavations Show

Stonehenge Didn't Stand Alone, Excavations Show
James Owen

Recent excavations of Salisbury Plain in southern England have revealed at least two other large stone formations close by the world-famous prehistoric monument.

One of the megalithic finds is a sandstone formation that marked a ritual burial mound; the other, a group of stones at the site of an ancient timber circle.

The new discoveries suggest that many similar monuments may have been erected in the shadow of Stonehenge, possibly forming part of a much larger complex, experts say.

Cremation Mound

The first monument—a 9.2-foot-long (2.8-meter-long) sarsen stone—was found lying in a field next to the River Avon, 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) east of Stonehenge, which is located near the modern-day city of Salisbury (United Kingdom map).

The riverside sarsen—large sandstone blocks that occur naturally in southern England—had been stood upright, archaeologists say, like the blocks that form the main structure of Stonehenge.

A team lead by Colin Richards of Manchester University and Joshua Pollard of Bristol University found the hole that originally held the stone, dug between 2500 and 2000 B.C., as well as human remains and artifacts that date to the same period.

The partially cremated remains of two people were buried next to the stone, Pollard said. One was a large male whose unburned vertebrae suggest he was at least 6 feet (182 centimeters) tall.

"Seemingly he was so big they weren't able to cremate him properly," the archaeologist noted. "The unburnt bone is the product of that poor process of cremation."

Stone knives and arrowheads, a piece of limestone carved into the shape of a megalith, two pottery bowls, and a rare rock crystal were also unearthed near the burial site.

The rock crystal find is the earliest known example from Britain and possibly came from as far away as the Alps, Pollard said.

Archaeologists have suggested that other prehistoric burials in the area were connected to mainland Europe, Pollard added.



Such a connection ties in with theories that Stonehenge was an important pilgrimage destination or a place where people traveled in the hope of miracle cures. (Related: "Pagans Get Support in Battle Over Stonehenge" [October 31, 2002].)

The megalithic burial site could also support theories that link Stonehenge and other standing stones to ancestor worship and commemorating the dead, Pollard added.



Circle of Stone

Pollard's team also found new evidence for stone settings at Woodhenge, a site 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) northeast of Stonehenge where a timber circle was constructed in about 2200 B.C.

Pollard said excavations in the 1920s hinted a stone monument may once have been present at the site.

"We were able to confirm last summer that there had been standing stones—some very considerable stones—at Woodhenge," he said.

While only fragments of the formation were found, the holes the stones were set in suggest the blocks stood up to 3 meters (9.8 feet) tall, Pollard said.

The team also found evidence for two phases of stone settings that probably came after the timber circle had rotted, he added.

"Four smaller stones were replaced by two much bigger sarsen settings," he said. "So it goes from a timber monument to being a megalithic monument, albeit not on the same scale as Stonehenge."

What happened to the stones at Woodhenge remains a mystery, Pollard added, though one possibility is that they were added to Stonehenge.

Network of Monuments

The research team says there is evidence from old maps and ancient sources for other similar monuments near Stonehenge.

"There may have been many smaller megalithic settings across this landscape," Pollard said.

"I think it's extremely likely there would have been other standing stones," particularly to the east, added Julian Thomas, professor of archaeology at Manchester University.

Such monuments would have had an important connection to Stonehenge, Thomas said. The stones and artifacts buried alongside the satellite monuments may have also played a symbolic role in spreading the authority of Stonehenge into the wider landscape.

"It was a way of referring to its powerfulness and to the importance and significance of the activities that are taking place at the henge and the people who are officiating," Thomas said.

He added that these latest finds show that Stonehenge shouldn't be seen in isolation.

"There's an overarching scheme of things which links Stonehenge to the broader landscape."


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/01/070112-stonehenge.html

http://www.english-heritage.org.uk

Camus nan Geall

Camus nan Geall
(Cladh Chiaran)

STANDING STONE

This prehistoric standing stone lies in a small Christian burial ground, on a tiny arable plain between the shore and the hills, on the coast of Ardnamurchan peninsula (Highlands).
It is 2.3m high, 0.9m wide and 23cm thick. It bears some much later decorations, carved on its west face in bas relief: two crosses (the larger one with pellets between the arms) and an animal (possibly a dog).
Some 90m to the north there is a ruined chambered cairn.

Camus nan Geall

Camus nan Geall
(Cladh Chiaran)

CHAMBERED CAIRN

Only part of the chamber and forecourt of this chambered cairn survive, on a tiny arable plain between the shore and the hills, on the south coast of Ardnamurchan peninsula (Highlands).
The setting of the site well illustrates the habitat of the early agricultural community, combining access to the sea, arable soil and hunting in the hills.
Ninety metres to the south lies a large standing stone, decorated much later with two crosses and an animal.

Loupin' Stanes

Loupin' Stanes

STONE CIRCLE

A slightly oval setting of 12 stones, situated on the left side of the River White Esk (Dumfries and Galloway), on an artificial platform. The ring is 10 x 11 m in diameter. Ten stones are low, while the two on the WSW side of the ring are taller (about 1.6 m). They could have marked the entrance. Some stones around the circle are the probable remains of other two rings. The Girdle Stanes stone circle is about 600 m to the south.

Girdle Stanes

Girdle Stanes

STONE CIRCLE

This prehistoric stone circle is situated on the east bank of the River White Esk (Dumfries and Galloway). It is 36.5m in diameter and its tallest stone is 1.7m high.
The western part of the ring has been cancelled by the river and 26 stones survive out of a probable 40-45. Some are still erect others are prostrate.
Two fallen stones lie about 120m to the north. Maybe they were part of an avenue leading to the Loupin' Stanes stone circle about 600m away.

Glenquicken

Glenquicken
(Glenquickan)

STONE CIRCLE

On remote moorland, this beautiful ring of 28 low boulders set close together is almost complete: only one boulder seems to be missing to the south-west. The central standing stone, 1.6m high, is a huge granite pillar weighing over 4 tons. The stone circle is 15.5m in diameter.
The stones are erected with their broad faces on the line of the circumference. The three tallest boulders (up to 0.9m high) are to the SSE (on the left of the photo).
Aubrey Burl writes in his A Guide to the Stone Circles of Britain, Ireland and Brittany: "Around 1809 when a adjacent cairn was levelled, workmen discovered a cist beneath it containing the skeleton of a man 'of uncommon size'. One arm had been almost severed by an axe of green stone, 'a species of stone never found in this part of Scotland' and perhaps from a Land's End 'factory' in Cornwall or, more probably, from the Scottish Highlands. A fragment was embedded in the bone".

Cairnholy II

Cairnholy II
(Cairn Holy II)

CHAMBERED CAIRN

This Clyde-type chambered cairn measures about 21m x 12m and is less elaborate than the nearby Cairnholy I tomb.
There is no evidence of a façade, but the entrance is flanked by an impressive 2.9m tall portal stone and its broken twin. In front of the entrance there is a closing stone, now prostrate.
The bipartite chamber survives almost intact. It consists of slab-sided inner and outer compartments, the inner still retaining its large capstone, as seen in the photo.
Excavation in 1949 by S. Piggott and T.G.E. Powell revealed a leaf-shaped arrowhead, a flint knife and Beaker pottery. The finds are now in the National Museum of Antiquities of Scotland in Edinburgh.
The site is said to be the grave of the mythical Scottish king Caldus (Galdus or Gauldus).
In care of Historic Scotland

Cairnholy I

Cairnholy I
(Cairn Holy I)

CHAMBERED CAIRN

On a gently sloping hill above Kirkdale Glen (Dumfries and Galloway) there is this superb Clyde-type chambered cairn with a monumental curving façade of eight tall uprights. The forecourt was used for ritual ceremonies. In front of the entrance there is a closing stone, now prostrate.
The cairn, measuring 43m x 10m, has been robbed of most of its material.
The chamber is built with in an inner and outer compartment, the inner one oddly built as a box, inaccessible from the outer one, as visible in the photo.
The site was excavated in 1949. Little is known about the burials for the acid soil conditions have dissolved the bones. Among the objects found in the outer compartment were part of an axe of jadeite, a rare green stone imported from the Alps and a leaf-shaped arrowhead. The axe is kept in the Royal Museum of Scotland, in Edinburgh.
Some 150m uphill is another fine chambered cairn, Cairnholy II.
In care of Historic Scotland

Torhousekie

Torhousekie
(Torhouse)

STONE CIRCLE

This beautiful flattened circle, measuring 21.4m x 20m, comprises 19 granite boulders. At the centre there is a row of three stones (two larger and one smaller between them) aligned NE-SW.
The circle boulders are graded in height from 0.6m to 1.4m towards the south-east. The site is different from any of the other stone rings in the region, being more like the recumbent stone circles of Grampian and south-west Ireland.
In 1684 the central stones were known as 'King Gauldus's Tomb' (a mythical Scottish king). Not far to the south of the circle there is a single standing stone and to the east an alignment of three boulders.
In care of Historic Scotland

Shields

Machrie Moor 6

Machrie Moor 6

STONE CIRCLE

This stone circle is a recent discovery in the important prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran). It was excavated from the peat by Aubrey Burl in 1978.
The stone ring is an asymmetric structure (neither circular nor oval, neither egg-shaped nor spiral) of ten small stones, nine of sandstone and one of granite (to the north-east). It measures 12.9m x 14.7m and the tallest stone is 1.2m high.
Excavation revealed that the ring, like the nearby Machrie Moor 1 stone circle, was preceded by a ring of timber posts.
In care of Historic Scotland

Machrie Moor 5

Machrie Moor 5
(Machrie Moor V, Fingal's Cauldron Seat)

STONE CIRCLE

This unusual site consists of two concentric rings of eight and fifteen granite boulders, 12m and 18m in diameter respectively. It is the largest of the several stone circles of the prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran).
The site is also known as 'Fingal's Cauldron Seat' according to the tradition that describes the giant Fingal boiling up his cauldron on the inner circle's stones.
The legend also says that the natural ledge in one of the outer ring's stones was where the giant tied up his dog Bran.
During excavation in 1861 an empty cist was found in the centre of the circles.
In care of Historic Scotland

Machrie Moor 4

Machrie Moor 4

STONE CIRCLE


This ellipse of four granite boulders (maybe five in origin) is one of the several stone circles of the important prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran). It is only 6.4m in diameter and its boulders are 0.9m high.
During excavation in 1861 a cist was found in the centre of the circle. It contained a crouched inhumation with an Irish tripartite food vessel, a bronze awl and three flint flakes.
In care of Historic Scotland

Machrie Moor 3

Machrie Moor 3

STONE CIRCLE

This beautiful tall stone is the only one still standing of one of the several stone circles of the important prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran).
The egg-shaped circle, about 15.5m in diameter, was once formed by nine sandstone slabs. Only three stumps and this impressive 4.3m tall stone are now visible.
During excavation in 1861 two cists were found within the circle: one with fragments of burnt bone and the other with a crouched burial of a 22 year-old man. Both cists also contained flint flakes.
In care of Historic Scotland

Machrie Moor 2

Machrie Moor 2

STONE CIRCLE

These impressive tall stones are the only ones still standing of one of the several stone circles of the important prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran).
The circle, about 13.7m in diameter, was once formed by seven or eight sandstone slabs. Only three of them, from 3.7m to 5.5m in height, are now still standing. Stumps of other stones are still visible.
There are also two granite millstones, maybe carved from a fallen upright.
During excavation in 1861 two cists were found within the circle, one empty and the other with a food vessel and four flint flakes from Ireland.
In care of Historic Scotland

Machrie Moor 1

Machrie Moor 1

STONE CIRCLE


This ellipse of eleven stones (probably twelve originally), 14.6m x 12.2m in diameter is one of the several stone circles of the important prehistoric ceremonial site of Machrie Moor (Isle of Arran).
The unusual and fascinating feature of this site is the arrangement of its stones: six squat granite boulders alternating with five (once probably six) red sandstone slabs.
Excavation by Aubrey Burl in 1978 revealed that the stone circle was preceded by a timber phase with two concentric settings of posts, the innermost was horseshoe-shaped. No cist was found within the circle.
In care of Historic Scotland

Morayshire

A Morayshire (Scotland) cave was a place where, in order to show their grief, parents built the most macabre of memorials. The heads of their offspring, perished before their time, were severed and placed on poles at the entrance to the cave, which was a temple to the dead children. The secrets of the ancient cave will be revealed in a BBC Scotland television series. It suggests that around 3000 years ago, people from across the north of Scotland, the islands, and possibly even Ireland, brought their dead children to Sculptor's Cave, near Lossiemouth.
Ian Shepherd, an archaeologist, has carried out numerous excavations in the remote cave. Uncovering skeletal parts from six children, his work brought to light skull parts in the cave's entrance, which from the way they lay, indicated there had at one time been fleshy heads on poles. "From what we can tell, these were simply people mourning their dead children," Mr Shepherd said. Prior to his discovery of the skull parts in 1979, a previous excavation 50 years before by classical archaeologist Sylvia Benton found thousands of bone parts - largely from juveniles.
Called the Sculptor's Cave because of ancient inscriptions at the entrance, the location of the cave has been known since Victorian times, but it is very remote. It can only be accessed from the land at low tide along a mile of shingle beach or by scaling the cliff face. Three thousand years ago, it might even have been an island, which would have reinforced its spiritual status.
Using computer graphics, the series, Art & Soul, will bring the cave back to life, showing the indicators of its religious significance and delving into its dark interior, a sacred pool strewn with Bronze Age treasures. Richard Holloway, presenter of the programme, said: Getting into the cave from the sea was exhilarating if a little scary, but it underpinned the amazing sense of this place. It's a story that both thrills and appals. Yet it seems to demonstrate an early fascination with what came after death. Three thousand years ago, our ancestors came to this dark, foreboding cave to consecrate their child-dead." He added: "In the depths of the cave, there's the first glimpse of the trapped pool of water - this was the bridge to another world, the high altar of a Bronze Age basilica. "The standing stones at Callanish are older but they suggest a multitude of interpretations, and for me the picture about spirituality and ancient Scottish religious art becomes clearer in this cave.

Sources: BBC News (12 January 2007), The Herald (13 January 2007)

The Hurlers

The Hurlers

Three stone circles lie in a line on the plain of Bodmin Moor

Near the moorland village of Minions, once prosperous from copper mining but now reduced to a scattering of houses, lies a Bronze Age stone temple known as The Hurlers. This unusual site consists of three large aligned stone circles, running from NNE to SSW, built in a pass, between the River Fowey and the River Lynher, the sides of Stowe's Hill and Caradon rising to north and south. Multiple or associated circles are not unusual in the south-west of England and they often lie between rivers at suitable positions for converging people and traders.
The southern circle is the smallest (32.9m/108ft across) and it has only nine stones left; the largest is the central circle, slightly egg shaped, with a diameter of 41.8 x 40.5m (137 x 132ft) and 14 stones, while the northern circle is 34.7 (113ft) across: 15 stones are here, of which four have fallen, and there were probably a further nine. The central and the northern rings were once linked by a granite pathway along their axis.
All the stones in the circles have been carefully erected so that they all appear the same height. Some are diamond-shaped, others round, and one has been shaped so that its uppermost edge is cloven. A spread of quartz crystals in the central circle may have come from shaping the stones with hammers. The northern circle was crossed by a boundary bank, and two stones 120m (393ft) to the WSW from the central site could be boundary posts, although astronomical purposes have been assigned them.
The name The Hurlers refers to an old tradition that the circles are men or women turned to stone, like The Pipers, The Merry Maidens, Stanton Drew, The King Stone and The Rollright Stones. As the historian William Camden wrote in 1610: The neighbouring inhabitants terme them Hurlers, as being by devout and godly error perswaded that they had been men sometime transformed into stones, for profaning the Lord's Day with hurling the ball. According to another legend, it is difficult to count the number of the Hurlers at Minions, but should you do so correctly, a misfortune will befall you.
Less than 0.8km (0.5mi) away from this circle lies the Rillaton round barrow and Trethevy Quoit, a fine portal dolmen, is 3.2km (2mi) south.

Os Estados Unidos estão insolventes

Os Estados Unidos estão insolventes
por Chris Martenson [*]


Os EUA estão insolventes. Simplesmente não existe forma de as contas nacionais poderem ser pagas de acordo com os actuais níveis de tributação e de benefícios prometidos. Actualmente, os nossos défices federais combinados são superiores a 400% do PIB.

Esta é a conclusão de um recente relatório do Tesouro intitulado Relatório Financeiro do Governo de Estados Unidos (Financial Report of the United States Government), que foi silenciosamente divulgado numa sexta-feira (15/12/2006), submergido na temporada de férias, e com pouca fanfarra. Por vezes pergunto a mim próprio porque o Departamento do Tesouro não paga simplesmente a alguém para distribuir o relatório pelas quatro e meia da manhã de Natal. Acrescento que tenho ainda de apresentar uma simples conclusão deste relatório em uma qualquer das principais emissoras noticiosas, mas isso é outro assunto.

Mas, claro, eu percebo. Um relatório assim tão mau precisa de tudo o que possa amortecer o seu impacto.

Na sua declaração que acompanha o relatório , David Walker, inspector (comptroller) dos EUA, aqueceu a sua audiência ao declarar que o General Accounting Office (GAO) havia encontrado tantas deficiências significativas no sistema contabilístico governamental que não lhe fora possível "exprimir uma opinião" sobre o estado financeiro. Ah, ah! Ele realmente sabe como manipular uma audiência!

Em linguagem contabilística é o mesmo que dizer ao seu cônjuge "O nosso livro de cheques está numa tal bagunça que não consigo dizer se estamos falidos ou ricos!". Da próxima vez que você tiver uma inexplicável explosão de saques da sua conta, desde aquela pescaria com os seus amigos, diga-lhe apenas que você não pode "expressar uma opinião", e veja se isso cola. Vamos ver se isso funciona!

Então Walker deu as notícias realmente más:

Apesar da melhoria dos custos líquidos operacionais do ano fiscal de 2006, e do défice orçamental, o total das responsabilidades referidas pelo governo norte-americano, compromissos líquidos da segurança social e outros compromissos fiscais, continua a aumentar, totalizando agora aproximadamente 50 milhões de milhões (trillion) de dólares, representando cerca de quatro vezes a produção total do país (PIB) no ano fiscal de 2006, compromissos esses que foram de 20 milhões de milhões de dólares em 2000, ou seja, duas vezes o PIB desse ano fiscal.
Enquanto este desequilíbrio fiscal de longo prazo continua a crescer, as reformas da geração "baby boom" estão cada vez mais próximas, com a primeira onda de "boomers" a atingir a reforma antecipada da Segurança Social já em 2008.
Tendo em conta estes e outros factores, parece evidente que a actual trajectória fiscal da nação é insustentável, e que são necessárias medidas impopulares a serem definidas pelo Presidente e pelo Congresso, para corrigir o grande e crescente desequilíbrio fiscal de longo prazo do país.

Boa! Eu sei que ultimamente David Walker tem falado muito sobre a sua preocupação acerca do nosso futuro económico, mas parece quase impossível ignorar as implicações destas suas declarações. De 20 milhões de milhões de dólares de compromissos fiscais em 2000, para mais de 50 milhões de milhões de dólares em apenas seis anos? O que faremos nós quando dispararmos para…100 milhões de milhões de dólares?

E acerca do facto daqueles "boomers" começarem a aposentar-se em 2008...que parece estar muuuuito para lá no futuro? Porém, logo após o 1º de Janeiro começamos a referirmo-nos a 2008 como o "próximo ano", em vez de um qualquer "ponto num futuro demasiado distante para nos preocuparmos agora" . Os nossos problemas económicos precisam ser classificados como crescentes, iminentes, e insustentáveis.

E permitam que clarifique alguns aspectos. Os 53 milhões de milhões de dólares de défice são expressos como "valor actual líquido". Isso significa que para fazer desaparecer o défice, teríamos de ter aquela quantia de dinheiro no banco... hoje, a render juros (o GAO usa 5,7% e 5,8% como taxa de rentabilidade previsível a longo prazo). Volto a dizer: 53 milhões de milhões de dólares, no banco, hoje. Caramba, eu nem sequer faço ideia do que é 1 milhão de milhões de dólares quanto mais 53 vezes isso.

E no próximo ano teríamos que pôr ainda mais dinheiro nesta conta mítica, simplesmente porque não é possível obter juros de dinheiro que não depositámos este ano nessa conta bancária. Para que saibamos, 5.7% sobre 53milhões de milhões de dólares representam um pouco mais de 3 milhões de milhões de dólares. Assim se pode constatar como, relativamente a este aspecto, a matemática está a trabalhar contra nós. Isto significa que o défice aumentará pelo menos outros 3 milhões de milhões de dólares, mais alguns outros défices que o governo possa acrescentar entretanto. Sendo assim, considere mais 4 milhões de milhões de dólares como uma previsão para o ano que vem.

Dado a forma cuidada como este tema tem sido evitado pela nossa nação com o controlo do que tem vindo a luz nos principais média e durante a última campanha eleitoral, sinto-me por vezes como se vivesse numa pequena cidade de montanha que decidiu ignorar uma avalanche que já vem por aí abaixo, para garantir a venda anual de ski à classe infantil.

O Departamento do Tesouro minimizou tudo o que dizia respeito ao gigantesco e insustentável défice, mas no relatório do último ano já fizeram uma abordagem bastante diferente. Página 10 do relatório:

As responsabilidades líquidas da segurança social (benefícios que excedem os ingressos estimados) indicam que aqueles programas estão numa trajectória fiscal insustentável e serão necessárias tomar medidas difíceis para fazer face ao seu enorme e crescente desequilíbrio fiscal de longo prazo.
Atrasar a aplicação de medidas correctivas será dispendioso e as decisões serão mais difíceis de tomar à medida em que se for tornando real a proximidade da aposentação da geração "baby boom", com a primeira onda de "boomers" a atingir a idade de reforma da Segurança Social em 2008.

Não sei como isto poderia ter sido exposto de forma mais clara. O Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA emitiu um relatório público advertindo que estamos num caminho insustentável e que enfrentamos medidas difíceis, que serão tão mais dispendiosas quanto mais demorarmos a decidir.

Talvez a razão, que possibilitou que as obrigações e o dólar dos EUA se tivessem aguentado tão bem, é que nós somos de longe os únicos nesta situação. Num recente artigo detalhando as razões de vir a acontecer uma possível perda de valor da libra esterlina do Reino Unido, podemos ler esta terrível evidência:

Oficialmente, (o Reino Unido) a dívida líquida do sector público está em 486,7 mil milhões de libras. Isso é igual a 953,9 mil milhões de dólares e representa um pouco menos de 38% do PIB. Acrescentando porém, a dívida do estado "fora do balanço" – que inclui as pensões dos funcionários do estado – o total atinge um valor quase três vezes mais elevado. Uma pesquisa do Centro de Estudos Políticos em Londres conclui que isto poderia levar a dívida do Reino Unido a atingir o valor surpreendente de 103% do PIB.

Porém, se fizermos os mesmos cálculos para os EUA, descobrimos que a dívida oficial está em 8.507 mil milhões de dólares, ou seja, 65% do PIB (nominal), mas quando somamos os items que temos "fora do balanço", concluímos que a dívida interna se encontra nos 53 milhões de milhões de dólares, o que representa 403% do PIB.

Mas é algo verdadeiramente terrível, surpreendente. Pode-se classificar isto como se quiser. Mais de quatrocentos por cento do PIB (!). E apenas ao nível federal. Com facilidade poderíamos tornar esta história um pouco mais fúnebre se incluíssemos os défices estatais, municipais e corporativos. Mas não façamos essas contas.

Vejamos o que significa em termos simples o défice federal:

1) Não existe qualquer maneira de "superar este problema". O que ressalta disto é que a situação financeira dos EUA deteriorou-se em mais de 22 milhões de milhões de dólares em apenas quatro anos, e 4,5 mil milhões só nos últimos doze meses (ver o quadro abaixo, da página 10 do relatório). O problema não "melhorou" como resultado do excelente crescimento económico verificado nos últimos três anos, mas muito pelo contrário, piorou e aparentemente está aceleradamente a piorar.




Qualquer enfraquecimento económico só exacerbará o problema. Não nos devemos esquecer que os pressupostos orçamentais do governo dos EUA apontam para um crescimento nominal do PIB de 5% ao ano, pelo menos até 2011. Por outras palavras, porque não se considera qualquer fraqueza económica em nenhuma das projecções deficitárias apresentadas, os 53 milhões de milhões de dólares poderiam estar a ser avaliados por baixo. Mais, nenhum dos custos de longo prazo associados com as guerras no Iraque e no Afeganistão são considerados em quaisquer dos números apresentados (pensamos que estejam para além dos 2 milhões de milhões de dólares mais).

2) O futuro será estabelecido com níveis de vida mais baixos. Como Lawrence Kotlikoff destacou no seu trabalho intitulado "Estão os EUA na bancarrota?" publicado na net no sítio da Reserva Federal de St. Louis, a insolvência dos EUA no mínimo exigirá alguma combinação da diminuição dos custos da Segurança Social com o aumento dos impostos. Ambos implicam menos dinheiro nos bolsos do contribuinte e, como disse anteriormente, menos dinheiro significa um nível de vida mais baixo.

3) Todos os governos que tiveram de enfrentar esta situação optaram por "estabelecer a sua forma de sair do problema". Isto é um facto histórico e o nosso país não apresenta nenhum indicador, infelizmente, de possuir uma marca indiscutível de coragem política necessária para tomar um caminho diferente. Em termos simples isto significa você & eu enfrentaremos um futuro de inflação incomodamente elevada, possivelmente de hiperinflação se o dólar dos EUA perder nalgum ponto desse caminho a sua posição de moeda de reserva internacional.

Claro que é impossível estabelecer a nossa forma de sair desta situação difícil, porque imprimir dinheiro é o mesmo que criar inflação, e portanto, fazer recair sobre todos um "imposto encoberto". Faça a seguinte avaliação: qual é a diferença em ter metade de seu dinheiro directamente levado (através de impostos) pelo governo, ou ter metade desse seu valor desaparecido devido à inflação? Nenhuma. Excepto que a primeira é um suicídio político, enquanto que a segunda nunca é discutida convenientemente pela imprensa económica de referência dos EUA (por alguma razão), e portanto não vai ser percebida pela maioria das pessoas, como o resultado completamente previsível dos gastos deficitários. O que se conseguirá na realidade com tudo o que se estabelecer para resolver este problema, é serem preservados alguns empregos em Washington, e serem dizimadas a classe média e a classe baixa.

Em resumo, gostaria de saber quanto tempo mais poderemos nós fingir que este problema não existe. Quanto tempo poderemos nós continuar a comprar acções e casas sob hipoteca, esquecendo-nos de poupar, continuando o aumento sem fim da dívida, a importar produtos chineses, e a exportar dívida? Estas actividades terão alguma utilidade quando existe uma avalanche económica que se aproxima de nós?

Infelizmente não sou suficientemente inteligente para conhecer a resposta. Eu só sei que ter a esperança de que um problema tão significativo e de tão grande dimensão como este desapareça não é uma estratégia ganhadora.

Sei que nós, como nação, devemos, a nós mesmos, promover uma dura discussão, tão imediata quanto possível, sobre o que pensamos acerca do nosso futuro financeiro. E eu suspeito que essa discussão terá de começar aqui mesmo, entre você e eu, porque não consigo vislumbrar sequer que a nossa actual amostra de líderes possa distinguir entre aquilo que é urgente e o que é expediente.

O que precisamos é de uma boa campanha de base à moda antiga.

Enquanto isso, não conheço qualquer maneira de alguém se proteger totalmente contra as devastações económicas resultantes das mal administradas instituições monetária e fiscal. Se servir para alguma coisa, informo que tenho investido muito em ouro e prata, e continuarei a investir até que as instituições acima mencionadas escolham confrontar "o que é" ao invés de "o que é conveniente". Isto poderia ser um investimento a muito longo prazo.

Será que está chocado?


[*] Comentarista americano, politicamente conservador.

O original encontra-se em http://drmss.com/wordpress/?p=17.

Silbury Hill

Silbury Hill.

The largest man-made prehistoric mound in Europe is 39.6 m (130 ft) high

Silbury Hill, part of the complex of Neolithic monuments around Avebury in Wiltshire (which includes the West Kennet long barrow), is the tallest prehistoric man-made mound in Europe and one of the world's largest. On a base covering over 2 hectares (5 acres), it rises 39.6m (130ft) high. It is a display of immense technical skill and prolonged control over labour and resources. Archaeologists calculate that Silbury Hill was built about 4600 years ago and that it took 18 million man-hours to dump and shape 248,000 cubic metres (8.75 million cu ft) of earth on top of a natural hill. Every man, woman and child in Britain today could together build such a mound if they each contributed one bucketful of earth.
The base of the monument is 167m (550ft) in diameter and it is perfectly round. Its summit is flat-topped and 30m (100ft) wide. We know that the construction took two phases: soon after work was started, a re-design was ordered, and the mound enlarged. It is constructed in steps, each step being filled in with packed chalk, and then smoothed off. There have been three excavations of the mound: the first when a team of Cornish miners led by the Duke of Northumberland sunk a shaft from top to bottom in 1776, another in 1849 when a tunnel was dug from the edge into the centre, and a third in 1968-70 when professor Richard Atkinson had another tunnel cut into the base. Nothing has ever been found on Silbury Hill: at its core there is only clay, flints, turf, moss, topsoil, gravel, freshwater shells, mistletoe, oak, hazel, sarsen stones, ox bones, and antler tines.
Moses B.Cotworth, at the beginning of this century, stated that Silbury was a giant sundial to determine seasons and the true length of the year. More recently, the writer Michael Dames has identified Silbury Hill as the winter goddess but he finally acknowledges that the monument remains a stupendous enigma.
According to legend, this is the last resting place of King Sil, sitting on a fabled golden horse. Another legend states that the mound holds a lifesize solid gold statue of King Sil and yet a third, that the Devil was carrying an apron of soil to drop on the citizens of Marlborough, but he was stopped by the priests of nearby Avebury.

"O caminho de um guerreiro...

"O caminho de um guerreiro é dominar a virtude de suas armas. Se um guerreiro não aprecia a estratégia, este será incapaz de apreciar as vantagens de suas armas"

Musashi.

Swing Trading pour les actions selon WD Gann

1 Introduction
2 Capital requis
3 Utilisez toujours des ordres stop loss
4 Comment repérer des points d'entrée sur le marché pour acheter
5 Comment repérer des points d'entrée sur le marché pour vendre
6 Comment pyramider?
7 Quand renverser ses positions
8 Les volumes de vente
9 La stricte observation de ces règles est source de profit
10 Source


Introduction

Dans son livre "New Stock Trend Detector" WD Gann présente une méthode de trading qui peut se révéler intéressante. Elle n'est sans doute pas parfaite mais elle peut servir de base à une réflexion plus poussée et guidera les novices vers une gestion sereine de leur capital. En lisant ce texte n'oubliez pas qu'il s'agit d'une expérience des années 30 il faut donc replacer dans le contexte actuel les sommes investies. Cette méthode de trading est à la base de ce que l'on appelle maintenant le swing trading. Laissons la parole à William Delbert Gann

Pour être rentable, une méthode de trading doit fonctionner aussi bien en théorie qu'en pratique. Il y a quelques années, j'ai créé une méthode de trading appliquée aux marchés et depuis 1932 j'y ai apporté quelques améliorations notables que je teste actuellement dans mes opérations de trading. Je donne ici à mes lecteurs le bénéfice de cette précieuse découverte.


Avec cette méthode vous devez utiliser un graphique Hebdomadaire indiquant les plus hauts et les plus bas de la semaine, c'est là le meilleur graphique à étudier pour un trader. Mais quand les marchés sont très actifs et que les cours des actions sont très élevés, vous pouvez utiliser un graphique Quotidien et appliquer les mêmes règles pour détecter un changement de tendance, les niveaux d'achat et de vente, ainsi que les points où placer vos ordres stop loss.

J'énonce les règles et je fais des trades sur papier depuis plus de 10 ans afin de vous prouver que de grands bénéfices peuvent être réalisés en appliquant les règles suivantes:

Capital requis

Afin de faire de la spéculation ou de l'investissement une activité rentable, vous devez savoir quel capital est nécessaire pour commencer et pour continuer à jouer en bourse. Dans un souci de sécurité, je considère qu'au moins 3.000$ devraient être consacrés au trading pour chaque achat d'une centaine d'actions, c'est en suivant ces règles que vous gagnerez de l'argent.

Pour faire des trades par lot de 10 actions, un capital de 300$ sera alors nécessaire.

Ne risquez jamais plus de 10% de votre capital sur un seul trade. Si vous subissez une ou deux pertes, réduisez alors votre unité de trading en risquant seulement 10% du capital qui vous reste. De cette façon vous ne perdrez jamais la totalité de votre capital et pourrez continuer à jouer en bourse et à réaliser des bénéfices.

Quand les profits ont atteint le montant de votre capital initial, disons 3.000$, vous pouvez alors jouer en bourse en achetant les actions par lots de 200. Mais ne faites cela qu'après avoir réalisé beaucoup de profits et en pensant toujours à preserver votre argent en ne jouant pas la totalité de votre capital.

La prudence doit être votre premier critère en toutes occasions. Lorsque vous avez réalisé de grands bénéfices, vous devez constituer un fond de réserve en plaçant cet argent dans une caisse d'épargne, dans des obligations ou en réalisant des investissements de tout premier ordre pour acquérir une source de revenus.

Utilisez toujours des ordres stop loss

N'oubliez jamais de placer un ordre stop loss après chaque trade et placez ces ordres stop loss 1, 2 ou 3 points sous votre prix d'achat ou au-dessus de votre prix de vente.

Lors de votre premier trade, et ce même lorsque les actions se vendent à des prix très élevés, vous ne devez sous aucun prétexte risquer plus de 5 points de perte ou 500$ de perte pour chaque lot de 100 actions que vous aurez acheté.

En règle générale, un stop loss placé 3 points en-dessous du prix d'achat, ou 3 points au-dessus du prix de vente, assurera une relative sécurité et il aura peu de risque d'être touché.

Après une progression soutenue, quand les actions évoluent rapidement et à de hauts niveaux de prix, si vous avez réalisé de gros bénéfices, alors faites remonter chaque jour votre trailing stop, 5 points en-dessous du plus haut du jour ou bien de 1 à 3 points en-dessous du plus bas ou en-dessous de la clôture du jour.

Au cas où une action progresserait à des niveaux de prix très élevés, il vous faudra remonter chaque jour votre trailing stop 10 points en-dessous du plus haut du jour.

Quant vous initiez des trades, ne risquez jamais plus de 10% de votre capital sur un seul trade. 5% devrait être le maximum à risquer et lorsque c'est possible, efforcez vous de ne pas risquer plus de 2 ou 3% par trade.

Au fur et à mesure de vos gains, faites remonter vos trailing stops 1, 2, 3 ou 5 points en-dessous du plus bas de la semaine si vous êtes long (acheteur) et descendez votre trailing stop 1, 2, 3 ou 5 points au-dessus du plus haut de la semaine si vous êtes short (vendeur).

Comment repérer des points d'entrée sur le marché pour acheter
Achetez après l'apparition de double creux ou de triple creux (double bottom/triple bottom) et placez un ordre stop loss 1, 2 ou 3 points juste en-dessous.

Achetez quand une action se maintient durant 1, 2 ou 3 semaines à un niveau de prix bas et placez un ordre stop loss 1 ou 2 mais jamais plus de 3 points en-dessous du plus bas hebdomadaire.

Achetez quand une action dépasse le sommet précédent de 1 ou 3 points. Dans la plupart des cas il est plus sûr d'attendre que l'action ait dépassé l'ancien sommet de 3 points afin de déterminer si la tendance est bien haussière.

Une fois que les cours ont dépassé l'ancien sommet de 3 points, si une correction survient, elle ne devrait pas faire repasser les cours plus de 3 points en-dessous de cet ancien sommet.

Exemple :

Si l'ancien sommet se situe à 50 et que les cours progressent jusqu'à 53, alors une correction ne devrait pas à nouveau faire baisser le prix de l'action jusqu'à 47.

Par conséquent, si une correction survient et fait baisser le cours de 51 à 48, vous devriez acheter et placer un ordre stop loss à 47, soit 3 points en-dessous de l'ancien sommet.

Quand une action progresse et réalise de nouveaux plus hauts, c'est-à-dire quand elle dépasse son ancien plus haut historique, c'est très souvent le signe de nouveaux records de prix et dans ce cas il est bon d'acheter. Si l'action dépasse son ancien plus haut elle corrigera rarement 3 points en-dessous de cet ancien sommet.

Regardez les sommets des années précédentes. Quand une action dépasse par 3 points un ancien sommet annuel, il est souvent très peu risqué d'acheter, en particulier si une réaction survient à proximité ou légèrement en-dessous de cet ancien sommet.

Dans un marché haussier les corrections à la baisse durent seulement 2 à 3 semaines avant que la tendance haussière ne reprenne le dessus. Par conséquent, il est peu risqué d'acheter après 2 ou 3 semaines de correction, une fois que le titre semble avoir réalisé un plus bas et qu'il a réussi à se maintenir en hausse durant 2 à 3 jours.

Comment repérer des points d'entrée sur le marché pour vendre
Vendez à découvert lorsque des doubles sommets ou des triples sommets (double tops /triple tops) apparaissent et placez un ordre stop loss 1, 2 ou 3 points au-dessus de ces sommets.

Quand d'anciens creux ou d'anciens bas majeurs sont cassés à la baisse, alors vendez "à découvert" et placez un ordre stop loss 1 ou 2 points, mais jamais plus de 3 points au-dessus de cet ancien point bas. Il est toujours plus sûr d'attendre qu'une action baisse de 3 points en-dessous d' un ancien plus bas avant de la vendre "à découvert". Vous pourrez alors vendre "au prix du marché" ou profiter d'une petite hausse corrective pour vendre le titre "à découvert" et protéger votre position en plaçant un ordre stop loss 3 points au-dessus de l'ancien bas significatif.

Lorsqu'une action a cassé un support et réalisé de nouveaux plus bas, protégez votre vente "à découvert" en abaissant votre ordre stop loss. Vous abaisserez ce stop 1 point au-dessus du plus haut de la semaine précédente Vous rechercherez aussi un support là où se trouve un ancien creux ou un ancien bas significatif afin de racheter les titres vendus "à découvert" mais également afin d'acheter en vue d'une hausse éventuelle une fois arrivé sur ces niveaux de prix.

En règle générale, dans un marché baissier un rally de hausse (hausse corrective) dure 2 à 3 semaines, il sera donc peu risqué de vendre "à découvert" à la fin de la 2nde ou de la 3eme semaine de hausse en plaçant un stop loss au-dessus du plus haut de la semaine précédente.

Observez les points bas des années précédentes. Quand une action baisse 3 points en-dessous d'un ancien bas annuel, il est presque toujours sans risque de vendre cette action "à découvert", en particulier si une hausse corrective a lieu à proximité ou légèrement au-dessus de cet ancien bas annuel.

Comment pyramider?
Il est important de savoir quand et comment pyramider.

Quand les actions évoluent à de bas niveaux de prix, disons entre 20 et 50, à chaque progression du titre par pallier de 5 points vous pouvez renforcer votre position d'achat ou de vente si votre capital et votre dépôt de garantie vous le permettent. C'est-à-dire, que lorsque vous avez 5 points de profit sur le premier trade, vous pouvez acheter ou vendre un paquet d'actions supplémentaires et placer un ordre stop loss de façon à n'enregister aucune perte sur ces 2 trades si le marché venait à se renverser et attrapait votre stop.

Quand les actions se vendent à un prix compris entre 80 et 200, vous devriez acheter ou vendre chaque fois que le titre progresse de 10 points. Après avoir réalisé le premier trade, attendez ensuite d'avoir 10 points de profit pour pouvoir acheter ou vendre un second paquet d'actions.

Une fois que vous aurez acheté ou vendu votre 4e ou 5e paquet d'actions par ce système d'achat/vente pyramidal vous devriez alors réduire la quantité des titres achetés ou vendus.

Par exemple :

Si vous avez acheté par paquets de 100 actions chaque fois qu'un titre progressait de 5 à 10 points et que vous avez accumulé un total de 500 actions, il sera alors moins risqué de réduire votre quantité d'achat à 50 actions chaque fois que le titre progressera de 5 à 10 points. Si vous avez acheté par paquets de 200 actions et celà 4 ou 5 fois, réduisez alors votre quantité d'achat à 100 actions par trade.

Inversez cette règle de trading si vous êtes short, c'est-à-dire en cas de vente "à découvert".

Les gains importants sont toujours réalisés en suivant le sens de la tendance.

N'achetez jamais un second ou un troisième paquet d'actions si le premier trade n'est pas encore gagnant.

Ne faites jamais la moyenne de vos pertes. Faire une moyenne de ses pertes est la plus grande erreur qu'un trader puisse faire.

Quand renverser ses positions
Par "renverser ses positions", je veux dire que si vous avez acheté des actions et accumulé les positions acheteuses, alors, quant il y a un changement de tendance et qu'il y a un signal de vente, vous devriez liquider vos positions mais également vous mettre à vendre "à découvert".

Par exemple :

Si une action progresse aux alentours de 75, là où se situe un ancien sommet majeur et se maintient à ce niveau durant 1 à 2 semaines, vous devriez liquider les actions que vous aviez achetées et vous mettre à vendre le titre à découvert. Vous placerez un ordre stop loss à 78 soit 3 points au-dessus de l'ancien plus haut.

Puis, si le stop à 78 est attrapé, vous devriez couper vos positions de vente "à découvert" et à nouveau vous porter acheteur sur ce titre car vous devez toujours suivre la tendance.

Appliquez la même règle lorsqu'une action baisse. Quand un changement de tendance survient et qu'il est temps de racheter ses ventes "à découvert", vous devriez alors non seulement racheter vos ventes à découvert mais aussi être acheteur en vue d'une hausse.

Les volumes de vente

En suivant les règles que j'ai énoncées dans mes livres consacrés aux Volumes, vous serez capables de repérer les sommets majeurs et les bas majeurs ainsi que les moments où des changments de tendance se mettent en place.

Lorsque les actions progressent rapidement et atteignent de hauts niveaux de prix, les Volumes de vente ont toujours tendance à augmenter. Après la première correction, profonde et rapide, il y a un rally haussier peu important et si la tendance principale est bien sur le point de devenir baissière alors le volume sera moins important qu'il ne l'était lors de la hausse sur le dernier sommet.

Après une baisse prolongée, une diminution des volumes indique que la liquidation va bientôt s'arrêter et qu'un changement de tendance va intervenir.

Dans les baisses panique, quand les actions s'effondrent, elles réalisent souvent un bas sur de larges volumes et il s'en suit un rally accompagné de volumes assez importants, puis survient une seconde baisse peu importante alors que le volume diminue considérablement. Observez bien le Volume de chaque titre boursier et considérez ce volume par rapport à la totalité des titres émis.

Par exemple :

General Motors avec ses 44.000.000 d'actions va progresser plus lentement et pour monter ne serait-ce que d'un seul point celà lui demandera plus de temps que pour des actions telles que Auburn Motors ou J. I. Case qui représentent des capitalisations boursières moins importantes.

Chrysler Motors a seulement un nombre total d'actions de 4½ millions comparativement à General Motors qui pour sa part en a 44.000.000 millions. Ceci est la raison pour laquelle de 1932 à 1935 Chrysler a réalisé de plus grandes variations que General Motors si l'on se base uniquement sur la variation en nombre de points.

La stricte observation de ces règles est source de profit
Ce n'est pas le marché qui vient à bout des traders, ce sont leurs émotions. Eliminez tout jugement et abandonnez les conjectures. N'achetez pas et ne vendez pas poussé par l'espoir ou la peur.

L'homme qui decidera d'appliquer ces règles à la lettre réalisera des profits. Assurez vous que les règles que j'ai enoncées fonctionnent bien et ensuite suivez les. Achetez ou vendez lorsque les règles indiquent qu'il est temps d'acheter ou de vendre et par conséquent ne clôturez pas vos positions, ne prenez pas vos profits avant que les règles ne vous indiquent clairement que le moment d'un changement de tendance est arrivé; faites donc vos trades en conséquence et vous connaîtrez le succès.